Okay, so movie-wise this year seems better than most. We have some intriguing films and good performances, most of which I have not seen but feel qualified to comment on nonetheless (!) Here are my picks and predix for Oscar noms SO FAR (subject to change when I have actually seen more than 2 of these movies)…. all based on an incalculable formula of buzz and intuition.
My dream winners are starred*
Best Actor– The Year of the Male! Oh wait, every year is that. Yes, there are too many to pick from, so this is my potpourri of guesses:
1. Heath Ledger
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman*
3 Joaquin Phoenix
4. Eric Bana
5. David Straithern
Also rans: I really hope Ralph Fiennes is nominated for Constant Gardener, though I think he will lose out to the fresher faces above. Clooney will probably get a nom for Syriana. Not sure which of the above he’ll knock out. Viggo for History of Violence, too. The buzz may have faded before the noms come out, though.Oh yeah and that Terence Howard dude has all kinds of love right now. Just pray to god if he’s nominated it’s for Crash and not Hustle and Flow.
Best Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon* (No, really! I have seen this movie!)
2. Naomi Watts
3. Probably Judi Dench because you just can’t have Oscars without a Dame
4. Keira Knightley? That would be cool.
5. ?? Again a not-so-great-year for the ladies. Laura “Susan Lucci of the Oscars” Linney again? I would say Charlize, but there seems to be some backlash against Norma Rae II. We also need to fill the “Other” role, which means the Pocahontas chick from The New World or that chick from Me and You and Everyone We Know (or whatever the hell the name of that movie is).
Best Director
1. Ang Lee, BbM*
2. Spielberg, Munich
3. Jackson, KK
4. Clooney, GNAGL– because the Academy always recognizes a popular actor who directs
5. Malick, TNW
Also rans: Cronenberg, HoV? Woody, MP?
Listen up Academy: I have to add here that Ang deserves it. I mean, the guy is a freaking brilliant film-maker. Quietly so, though–you have to pay attention to the subtleties of his films, which I know is tough for the average viewer. All the others have been recognized more than enough. This is Ang’s year.
Best Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain*
2. Walk the Line
3. Munich
4. Crash
5. [Open spot]: Constant Gardener (again, my plug for all things Ralph); Match Point (?) I don’t know, has the Academy finally soured on Woody?; I keep hearing a lot of buzz on The Squid and the Whale, so this could take the Indy spot if Crash is now considered mainstream.
I haven’t seen Crash, so I wonder if the ensemble cast will qualify for Best Actor/-tress noms or be relegated to the Supporting categories.
I usually don’t bother with the Supporting categories, but of course I am hoping for both Michelle and Anne from BbM for their superb performances.
Bring it on, Ebert and Roeper! And for the 2.5 people who read my blog, I welcome your comments and opinions!